I'll help you estimate the US addressable patient funnel and peak revenue for an oral advanced therapy in moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis. Let me start by exploring the available data.
{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indications": {
"NSCLC": {
"label": "Non-small cell lung cancer (EGFR-mutant subset of interest)",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"HER2+ Breast": {
"label": "HER2-positive breast cancer",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"ES-SCLC": {
"label": "Extensive-stage small cell lung cancer",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"Ulcerative Colitis": {
"label": "Ulcerative colitis (moderate-to-severe)",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "prevalence"
},
"ATTR-CM": {
"label": "Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "prevalence"
}
}
}Ulcerative Colitis is available with a prevalence-based funnel for the US. Let me pull all the relevant data.
{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "Ulcerative Colitis",
"label": "Ulcerative colitis (moderate-to-severe)",
"funnel_basis": "prevalence",
"diagnosis_rate": 0.85,
"treatment_rate": 0.9,
"epidemiology": {
"US": {
"incidence_per_year": 38000,
"prevalence": 900000
}
},
"note": "funnel_basis tells you whether to start the funnel from incidence (new patients/year) or prevalence (point count of living patients)."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "Ulcerative Colitis",
"subtypes": {
"moderate_to_severe_fraction": 0.35,
"advanced_therapy_eligible_fraction": 0.6
},
"line_splits": {
"1L_advanced": 0.6,
"2L_advanced": 0.4
},
"notes": "Chronic disease: build from PREVALENCE, not incidence. ~35% of diagnosed UC is moderate-to-severe; of those ~60% are candidates for advanced therapy (biologics / JAK inhibitors / S1P modulators). Annual dosing, full year of therapy with discontinuation captured by persistence."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "Ulcerative Colitis",
"annual_price": 45000,
"treated_months": 12,
"persistence": 0.75,
"note": "annual_price is the list price for a full year. persistence is the fraction of a year actually paid for (discontinuation/mortality). Effective revenue per addressable patient/year = annual_price x persistence."
}I have all the data needed. Let me build the funnel from prevalence (correct for a chronic disease) and sketch peak revenue.
| Step | Factor | Patients |
|---|---|---|
| US prevalence (UC, all severity) | 900,000 | 900,000 |
| × Diagnosed | 0.85 | 765,000 |
| × Treated | 0.90 | 688,500 |
| × Moderate-to-severe fraction | 0.35 | 240,975 |
| × Advanced-therapy eligible | 0.60 | 144,585 |
Total addressable population ≈ 145,000 patients (advanced-therapy-eligible, moderate-to-severe UC in the US).
Effective revenue per addressable patient/year = annual price × persistence
= $45,000 × 0.75 = $33,750/patient/year
Peak revenue depends on the peak market share you capture of the ~145K addressable pool. Since this is a crowded class (biologics, JAK inhibitors, S1P modulators), here is a scenario range:
| Peak share of addressable | Treated patients | Peak revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | ~7,200 | ~$245M |
| 10% | ~14,500 | ~$490M |
| 15% | ~21,700 | ~$730M |
| 20% | ~28,900 | ~$975M |
Total addressable revenue (100% capture, theoretical ceiling): 144,585 × $33,750 ≈ $4.9B.
Key assumptions & caveats:
- Funnel built from prevalence (correct for chronic disease), not incidence.
- Peak share is the main swing variable — I haven't been given a share assumption, so I've shown a scenario range rather than a single number.
- Persistence (0.75) captures discontinuation/mortality, reflecting that real-world adherence to advanced UC therapies erodes over the year.
- Figures use list price; net of rebates/gross-to-net (often 30–50% in this class) would meaningfully lower realized revenue — a real model should layer that on.
- This is a teaching snapshot with rounded, curated numbers — not a citable real-world data pull.
Would you like me to (a) apply a gross-to-net adjustment, (b) model a specific peak-share assumption, or (c) build the EU5 funnel for comparison?
I have all the data needed. Let me build the funnel from prevalence (correct for a chronic disease) and sketch peak revenue.
| Step | Factor | Patients |
|---|---|---|
| US prevalence (UC, all severity) | 900,000 | 900,000 |
| × Diagnosed | 0.85 | 765,000 |
| × Treated | 0.90 | 688,500 |
| × Moderate-to-severe fraction | 0.35 | 240,975 |
| × Advanced-therapy eligible | 0.60 | 144,585 |
Total addressable population ≈ 145,000 patients (advanced-therapy-eligible, moderate-to-severe UC in the US).
Effective revenue per addressable patient/year = annual price × persistence
= $45,000 × 0.75 = $33,750/patient/year
Peak revenue depends on the peak market share you capture of the ~145K addressable pool. Since this is a crowded class (biologics, JAK inhibitors, S1P modulators), here is a scenario range:
| Peak share of addressable | Treated patients | Peak revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | ~7,200 | ~$245M |
| 10% | ~14,500 | ~$490M |
| 15% | ~21,700 | ~$730M |
| 20% | ~28,900 | ~$975M |
Total addressable revenue (100% capture, theoretical ceiling): 144,585 × $33,750 ≈ $4.9B.
Key assumptions & caveats:
- Funnel built from prevalence (correct for chronic disease), not incidence.
- Peak share is the main swing variable — I haven't been given a share assumption, so I've shown a scenario range rather than a single number.
- Persistence (0.75) captures discontinuation/mortality, reflecting that real-world adherence to advanced UC therapies erodes over the year.
- Figures use list price; net of rebates/gross-to-net (often 30–50% in this class) would meaningfully lower realized revenue — a real model should layer that on.
- This is a teaching snapshot with rounded, curated numbers — not a citable real-world data pull.
Would you like me to (a) apply a gross-to-net adjustment, (b) model a specific peak-share assumption, or (c) build the EU5 funnel for comparison?
Deterministic funnel for Ulcerative Colitis in US built from the curated tool data (basis = prevalence). Eligibility gating is the product of the subtype fractions that apply to this drug, then the line-of-therapy gate. The peak-revenue sketch uses an illustrative 30% peak share; a strong agent may choose a different, well-justified share. Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.
| Funnel step | Patients / value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Prevalence (point) | 900,000 | US Ulcerative Colitis; basis = prevalence |
| 2. Diagnosed | 765,000 | x 85% diagnosis rate |
| 3. Drug-treated | 688,500 | x 90% treatment rate |
| 4. Moderate-to-severe | 240,975 | x 35% |
| 5. Advanced-therapy eligible | 144,585 | x 60% |
| 6. Line gate: 1L advanced | 86,751 | x 60% (=1.0 if already encoded above) |
| = Addressable patients | 86,751 | eligibility = 21% of treated, x line |
| Peak capture @ 30% share | 26,025 | illustrative peak share assumption |
| Eff. revenue / patient-yr | $33,750 | $45,000 list x 75% persistence |
| ~ Peak revenue (USD/yr) | $878,353,875 | = captured patients x eff. revenue/pt |