I'll help you size the addressable patient population and rough peak revenue for a DLL3 T-cell engager in ES-SCLC second-line. Let me gather the relevant data.
{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "ES-SCLC",
"label": "Extensive-stage small cell lung cancer",
"funnel_basis": "incidence",
"diagnosis_rate": 0.95,
"treatment_rate": 0.85,
"epidemiology": {
"US": {
"incidence_per_year": 33000,
"prevalence": 38000
}
},
"note": "funnel_basis tells you whether to start the funnel from incidence (new patients/year) or prevalence (point count of living patients)."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "ES-SCLC",
"subtypes": {
"extensive_stage_fraction": 0.7,
"DLL3_expression_fraction": 0.85,
"fit_for_2L_fraction": 0.55
},
"line_splits": {
"1L": 0.95,
"2L": 0.5,
"3L+": 0.2
},
"notes": "SCLC is ~13% of lung cancer; counts here are SCLC totals. ~70% present extensive-stage. DLL3 is expressed in ~85% of SCLC. A DLL3 T-cell engager (e.g. tarlatamab) is used 2L+; gate ES-SCLC on DLL3 expression AND being fit for second-line therapy. Short treated duration reflects rapid progression and high mortality."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "ES-SCLC",
"annual_price": 220000,
"treated_months": 8,
"persistence": 0.55,
"note": "annual_price is the list price for a full year. persistence is the fraction of a year actually paid for (discontinuation/mortality). Effective revenue per addressable patient/year = annual_price x persistence."
}Perfect! Now let me build out the addressable population and revenue model:
| Stage | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US ES-SCLC incidence/year | 33,000 | Starting point (incidence-based) |
| × Diagnosis rate | 0.95 | → 31,350 |
| × Treatment rate (1L+) | 0.85 | → 26,648 |
| × Second-line population (2L share) | 0.50 | → 13,324 |
| × DLL3 expression | 0.85 | → 11,325 |
| × Fit for 2L therapy | 0.55 | → 6,229 addressable patients/year |
Alternative reading: The subtype data notes that 70% of SCLC presents as extensive-stage. This 33k figure is already ES-SCLC incidence.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Addressable patients/year (2L ES-SCLC, DLL3+) | 6,229 |
| Annual list price | $220,000 |
| Persistence factor (actual payment fraction) | 0.55 |
| Effective revenue per patient/year | $121,000 |
| Peak annual revenue (full penetration) | ~$754 million |
Realistic peak (assuming ~30–50% market share in a competitive 2L landscape): $225M–$375M.
Perfect! Now let me build out the addressable population and revenue model:
| Stage | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US ES-SCLC incidence/year | 33,000 | Starting point (incidence-based) |
| × Diagnosis rate | 0.95 | → 31,350 |
| × Treatment rate (1L+) | 0.85 | → 26,648 |
| × Second-line population (2L share) | 0.50 | → 13,324 |
| × DLL3 expression | 0.85 | → 11,325 |
| × Fit for 2L therapy | 0.55 | → 6,229 addressable patients/year |
Alternative reading: The subtype data notes that 70% of SCLC presents as extensive-stage. This 33k figure is already ES-SCLC incidence.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Addressable patients/year (2L ES-SCLC, DLL3+) | 6,229 |
| Annual list price | $220,000 |
| Persistence factor (actual payment fraction) | 0.55 |
| Effective revenue per patient/year | $121,000 |
| Peak annual revenue (full penetration) | ~$754 million |
Realistic peak (assuming ~30–50% market share in a competitive 2L landscape): $225M–$375M.
Deterministic funnel for ES-SCLC in US built from the curated tool data (basis = incidence). Eligibility gating is the product of the subtype fractions that apply to this drug, then the line-of-therapy gate. The peak-revenue sketch uses an illustrative 30% peak share; a strong agent may choose a different, well-justified share. Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.
| Funnel step | Patients / value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Incidence (new/yr) | 33,000 | US ES-SCLC; basis = incidence |
| 2. Diagnosed | 31,350 | x 95% diagnosis rate |
| 3. Drug-treated | 26,648 | x 85% treatment rate |
| 4. Extensive-stage | 18,653 | x 70% |
| 5. DLL3-expressing | 15,855 | x 85% |
| 6. Fit for 2L therapy | 8,720 | x 55% |
| 7. Line gate: 2L+ | 8,720 | x 100% (=1.0 if already encoded above) |
| = Addressable patients | 8,720 | eligibility = 33% of treated, x line |
| Peak capture @ 30% share | 2,616 | illustrative peak share assumption |
| Eff. revenue / patient-yr | $121,000 | $220,000 list x 55% persistence |
| ~ Peak revenue (USD/yr) | $316,550,316 | = captured patients x eff. revenue/pt |