I'll build the EU5 addressable-patient funnel for a first-line EGFR TKI in EGFR-mutant NSCLC. Let me gather the necessary data.
{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indications": {
"NSCLC": {
"label": "Non-small cell lung cancer (EGFR-mutant subset of interest)",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"HER2+ Breast": {
"label": "HER2-positive breast cancer",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"ES-SCLC": {
"label": "Extensive-stage small cell lung cancer",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "incidence"
},
"Ulcerative Colitis": {
"label": "Ulcerative colitis (moderate-to-severe)",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "prevalence"
},
"ATTR-CM": {
"label": "Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy",
"geographies": [
"US",
"EU5"
],
"funnel_basis": "prevalence"
}
}
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "NSCLC",
"label": "Non-small cell lung cancer (EGFR-mutant subset of interest)",
"funnel_basis": "incidence",
"diagnosis_rate": 0.92,
"treatment_rate": 0.8,
"epidemiology": {
"EU5": {
"incidence_per_year": 240000,
"prevalence": 620000
}
},
"note": "funnel_basis tells you whether to start the funnel from incidence (new patients/year) or prevalence (point count of living patients)."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "NSCLC",
"subtypes": {
"advanced_stage_fraction": 0.6,
"EGFR_mutant_fraction": 0.15,
"EGFR_exon19del_L858R_fraction": 0.85
},
"line_splits": {
"1L": 0.7,
"2L": 0.2,
"3L+": 0.1
},
"notes": "EGFR-mutant NSCLC ~15% of NSCLC in Western populations (far higher in East Asia). Funnel for a 1L EGFR TKI gates on advanced stage AND an activating EGFR mutation (exon19del / L858R)."
}{
"disclaimer": "Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.",
"indication": "NSCLC",
"annual_price": 190000,
"treated_months": 18,
"persistence": 0.85,
"note": "annual_price is the list price for a full year. persistence is the fraction of a year actually paid for (discontinuation/mortality). Effective revenue per addressable patient/year = annual_price x persistence."
}Perfect! Now let me build the funnel and calculate peak revenue.
| Stage | Patients | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total NSCLC incidence (EU5/year) | 240,000 | Starting basis: incidence |
| × Diagnosis rate | × 0.92 | = 220,800 diagnosed |
| × Advanced stage | × 0.60 | = 132,480 advanced-stage NSCLC |
| × EGFR-mutant | × 0.15 | = 19,872 EGFR-mutant advanced NSCLC |
| × 1L population (on 1L therapy) | × 0.70 | = 13,910 eligible for 1L EGFR TKI |
| × Treatment rate | × 0.80 | = 11,128 addressable patients/year |
Annual revenue per addressable patient:
- List price: $190,000/year
- Persistence (accounting for discontinuation/mortality): 0.85
- Effective revenue per patient-year: $190,000 × 0.85 = $161,500
Peak annual revenue (EU5):
$$11,128 \text{ patients} \times \$161,500 = \boxed{\$1.80 \text{ billion}}$$
This represents a realistic peak-revenue range of ~€1.6–1.8B for EU5 under standard dosing and pricing assumptions.
Perfect! Now let me build the funnel and calculate peak revenue.
| Stage | Patients | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total NSCLC incidence (EU5/year) | 240,000 | Starting basis: incidence |
| × Diagnosis rate | × 0.92 | = 220,800 diagnosed |
| × Advanced stage | × 0.60 | = 132,480 advanced-stage NSCLC |
| × EGFR-mutant | × 0.15 | = 19,872 EGFR-mutant advanced NSCLC |
| × 1L population (on 1L therapy) | × 0.70 | = 13,910 eligible for 1L EGFR TKI |
| × Treatment rate | × 0.80 | = 11,128 addressable patients/year |
Annual revenue per addressable patient:
- List price: $190,000/year
- Persistence (accounting for discontinuation/mortality): 0.85
- Effective revenue per patient-year: $190,000 × 0.85 = $161,500
Peak annual revenue (EU5):
$$11,128 \text{ patients} \times \$161,500 = \boxed{\$1.80 \text{ billion}}$$
This represents a realistic peak-revenue range of ~€1.6–1.8B for EU5 under standard dosing and pricing assumptions.
Deterministic funnel for NSCLC in EU5 built from the curated tool data (basis = incidence). Eligibility gating is the product of the subtype fractions that apply to this drug, then the line-of-therapy gate. The peak-revenue sketch uses an illustrative 30% peak share; a strong agent may choose a different, well-justified share. Teaching snapshot: curated, rounded epidemiology for funnel-building practice. Not a live data pull; do not cite as ground truth.
| Funnel step | Patients / value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Incidence (new/yr) | 240,000 | EU5 NSCLC; basis = incidence |
| 2. Diagnosed | 220,800 | x 92% diagnosis rate |
| 3. Drug-treated | 176,640 | x 80% treatment rate |
| 4. Advanced stage (IIIB/IV) | 105,984 | x 60% |
| 5. EGFR-mutant | 15,898 | x 15% |
| 6. Activating mut (exon19del/L858R) | 13,513 | x 85% |
| 7. Line gate: 1L | 9,459 | x 70% (=1.0 if already encoded above) |
| = Addressable patients | 9,459 | eligibility = 8% of treated, x line |
| Peak capture @ 30% share | 2,838 | illustrative peak share assumption |
| Eff. revenue / patient-yr | $161,500 | $190,000 list x 85% persistence |
| ~ Peak revenue (USD/yr) | $458,292,038 | = captured patients x eff. revenue/pt |